Transmission dynamics of Oropouche virus in Latin America and the Caribbean

Erika R. Manuli; Xinyi Hua; Gabriel C. Scachetti; Julia Forato; Ingra M. Claro; Geovana M. Pereira; Livia Sacchetto; Oscar Cortes-Azuero; Ana Carolina Bernardo; Cláudia F. Resende; Natália B.S. Bacarov; Ligia Capuani; Shirlene T.S. de Lima; Ronaldo de Jesus; Rodrigo B. Kato; Bárbara B. Salgado; Carolina M.L. Singh; Nadielle C. Pereira; Renato S. Reis; Sérgio R.L. Albuquerque; Richard Stanton; Vanderson S. Sampaio; Ana I. Bento; Marielton P. Cunha; Oliver Ratmann; Nuno R. Faria; Scott C. Weaver; Pritesh J. Lalwani; Henrik Salje; Allyson G. Costa; José Luiz Proenca-Modena; Ester C. Sabino; William M. de Souza

doi:10.1038/s41591-026-04221-z

Transmission dynamics of Oropouche virus in Latin America and the Caribbean

Erika R. Manuli
, Xinyi Hua
, Gabriel C. Scachetti
, Julia Forato
, Ingra M. Claro
, Geovana M. Pereira
, Livia Sacchetto
, Oscar Cortes-Azuero
, Ana Carolina Bernardo
, Cláudia F. Resende
, Natália B.S. Bacarov
, Ligia Capuani
, Shirlene T.S. de Lima
, Ronaldo de Jesus
, Rodrigo B. Kato
, Bárbara B. Salgado
, Carolina M.L. Singh
, Nadielle C. Pereira
, Renato S. Reis
, Sérgio R.L. Albuquerque

Richard Stanton, Vanderson S. Sampaio, Ana I. Bento, Marielton P. Cunha, Oliver Ratmann, Nuno R. Faria, Scott C. Weaver, Pritesh J. Lalwani, Henrik Salje, Allyson G. Costa, José Luiz Proenca-Modena, Ester C. Sabino, William M. de Souza

Microbiology, Immunology, and Molecular Genetics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Oropouche virus (OROV) is an arbovirus endemic to the Amazon region since the 1950s that re-emerged in late 2023, causing a major epidemic across Central and South America. Here we investigated the transmission dynamics of the 2023–2024 epidemic in Manaus City (Amazonas state, Brazil), a major metropolitan hub in the Amazon, and estimated OROV infections across Latin America and the Caribbean. OROV re-emergence in Manaus resulted in an increase of IgG seroprevalence from 11.4% in November 2023 to 25.7% in November 2024. The neutralizing capacity of OROV-specific IgG antibodies from individuals collected before and after the re-emergence demonstrated a median plaque reduction neutralization test 50% titer of 640 against both the historical and contemporary OROV isolates. A historical reconstruction of OROV circulation in Manaus indicated a continuous low-level transmission with two major outbreaks of comparable seasonality and magnitude in 1980–1981 and 2023–2024. We estimate approximately 336,000 OROV infections in the Amazon region under a scenario of continuous endemic transmission without major outbreaks and over 9.4 million OROV infections during major outbreaks from 1960 to 2025. Collectively, our findings provide a comprehensive assessment of OROV transmission in Manaus and contribute to a better understanding of the OROV burden.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1383-1392
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Medicine
Volume	32
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-026-04221-z
State	Published - Apr 2026

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc. 2026.

Funding

W.M.d.S. and N.R.F. were supported by Wellcome Trust Digital Technology Development Award in Climate Sensitive Infectious Disease Modelling (no. 226075/Z/22/Z) and the Wellcome Trust Dengue and Zika Immunology and Genomics Multi-Country Network (DeZi Network; no. 316633/Z/24/Z). J.L.P.-M. is supported by São Paulo Research Foundation (no. 2022/10442-0), National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq, no. 309971/2023-3). E.R.M. is affiliated with the Wellcome Trust-funded Centres for Antimicrobial Optimization Network (no. 226693/Z/22/Z). V.S.S. was supported by a CNPq fellowship. We acknowledge funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (no. MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement, and also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union. A.I.B. was supported by Cornell Atkinson Center seed funding. We thank J. A. Tida ( www.plotmyscience.com ) for figure editing.

Funders	Funder number
European Commission
Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability, Cornell University
Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office
UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council	MR/R015600/1
Wellcome Trust	226075/Z/22/Z, 316633/Z/24/Z
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo	2022/10442-0
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico	309971/2023-3

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Medicine
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology

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10.1038/s41591-026-04221-z

Cite this

Manuli, E. R., Hua, X., Scachetti, G. C., Forato, J., Claro, I. M., Pereira, G. M., Sacchetto, L., Cortes-Azuero, O., Bernardo, A. C., Resende, C. F., Bacarov, N. B. S., Capuani, L., de Lima, S. T. S., de Jesus, R., Kato, R. B., Salgado, B. B., Singh, C. M. L., Pereira, N. C., Reis, R. S., ... de Souza, W. M. (2026). Transmission dynamics of Oropouche virus in Latin America and the Caribbean. Nature Medicine, 32(4), 1383-1392. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-026-04221-z

@article{224b401d993b4dc2936f29d8c11bdb9c,

title = "Transmission dynamics of Oropouche virus in Latin America and the Caribbean",

abstract = "Oropouche virus (OROV) is an arbovirus endemic to the Amazon region since the 1950s that re-emerged in late 2023, causing a major epidemic across Central and South America. Here we investigated the transmission dynamics of the 2023{\textendash}2024 epidemic in Manaus City (Amazonas state, Brazil), a major metropolitan hub in the Amazon, and estimated OROV infections across Latin America and the Caribbean. OROV re-emergence in Manaus resulted in an increase of IgG seroprevalence from 11.4\% in November 2023 to 25.7\% in November 2024. The neutralizing capacity of OROV-specific IgG antibodies from individuals collected before and after the re-emergence demonstrated a median plaque reduction neutralization test 50\% titer of 640 against both the historical and contemporary OROV isolates. A historical reconstruction of OROV circulation in Manaus indicated a continuous low-level transmission with two major outbreaks of comparable seasonality and magnitude in 1980{\textendash}1981 and 2023{\textendash}2024. We estimate approximately 336,000 OROV infections in the Amazon region under a scenario of continuous endemic transmission without major outbreaks and over 9.4 million OROV infections during major outbreaks from 1960 to 2025. Collectively, our findings provide a comprehensive assessment of OROV transmission in Manaus and contribute to a better understanding of the OROV burden.",

author = "Manuli, \{Erika R.\} and Xinyi Hua and Scachetti, \{Gabriel C.\} and Julia Forato and Claro, \{Ingra M.\} and Pereira, \{Geovana M.\} and Livia Sacchetto and Oscar Cortes-Azuero and Bernardo, \{Ana Carolina\} and Resende, \{Cl{\'a}udia F.\} and Bacarov, \{Nat{\'a}lia B.S.\} and Ligia Capuani and \{de Lima\}, \{Shirlene T.S.\} and \{de Jesus\}, Ronaldo and Kato, \{Rodrigo B.\} and Salgado, \{B{\'a}rbara B.\} and Singh, \{Carolina M.L.\} and Pereira, \{Nadielle C.\} and Reis, \{Renato S.\} and Albuquerque, \{S{\'e}rgio R.L.\} and Richard Stanton and Sampaio, \{Vanderson S.\} and Bento, \{Ana I.\} and Cunha, \{Marielton P.\} and Oliver Ratmann and Faria, \{Nuno R.\} and Weaver, \{Scott C.\} and Lalwani, \{Pritesh J.\} and Henrik Salje and Costa, \{Allyson G.\} and Proenca-Modena, \{Jos{\'e} Luiz\} and Sabino, \{Ester C.\} and \{de Souza\}, \{William M.\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc. 2026.",

year = "2026",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1038/s41591-026-04221-z",

language = "English",

volume = "32",

pages = "1383--1392",

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Manuli, ER, Hua, X, Scachetti, GC, Forato, J, Claro, IM, Pereira, GM, Sacchetto, L, Cortes-Azuero, O, Bernardo, AC, Resende, CF, Bacarov, NBS, Capuani, L, de Lima, STS, de Jesus, R, Kato, RB, Salgado, BB, Singh, CML, Pereira, NC, Reis, RS, Albuquerque, SRL, Stanton, R, Sampaio, VS, Bento, AI, Cunha, MP, Ratmann, O, Faria, NR, Weaver, SC, Lalwani, PJ, Salje, H, Costa, AG, Proenca-Modena, JL, Sabino, EC & de Souza, WM 2026, 'Transmission dynamics of Oropouche virus in Latin America and the Caribbean', Nature Medicine, vol. 32, no. 4, pp. 1383-1392. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-026-04221-z

TY - JOUR

T1 - Transmission dynamics of Oropouche virus in Latin America and the Caribbean

AU - Manuli, Erika R.

AU - Hua, Xinyi

AU - Scachetti, Gabriel C.

AU - Forato, Julia

AU - Claro, Ingra M.

AU - Pereira, Geovana M.

AU - Sacchetto, Livia

AU - Cortes-Azuero, Oscar

AU - Bernardo, Ana Carolina

AU - Resende, Cláudia F.

AU - Bacarov, Natália B.S.

AU - Capuani, Ligia

AU - de Lima, Shirlene T.S.

AU - de Jesus, Ronaldo

AU - Kato, Rodrigo B.

AU - Salgado, Bárbara B.

AU - Singh, Carolina M.L.

AU - Pereira, Nadielle C.

AU - Reis, Renato S.

AU - Albuquerque, Sérgio R.L.

AU - Stanton, Richard

AU - Sampaio, Vanderson S.

AU - Bento, Ana I.

AU - Cunha, Marielton P.

AU - Ratmann, Oliver

AU - Faria, Nuno R.

AU - Weaver, Scott C.

AU - Lalwani, Pritesh J.

AU - Salje, Henrik

AU - Costa, Allyson G.

AU - Proenca-Modena, José Luiz

AU - Sabino, Ester C.

AU - de Souza, William M.

PY - 2026/4

Y1 - 2026/4

N2 - Oropouche virus (OROV) is an arbovirus endemic to the Amazon region since the 1950s that re-emerged in late 2023, causing a major epidemic across Central and South America. Here we investigated the transmission dynamics of the 2023–2024 epidemic in Manaus City (Amazonas state, Brazil), a major metropolitan hub in the Amazon, and estimated OROV infections across Latin America and the Caribbean. OROV re-emergence in Manaus resulted in an increase of IgG seroprevalence from 11.4% in November 2023 to 25.7% in November 2024. The neutralizing capacity of OROV-specific IgG antibodies from individuals collected before and after the re-emergence demonstrated a median plaque reduction neutralization test 50% titer of 640 against both the historical and contemporary OROV isolates. A historical reconstruction of OROV circulation in Manaus indicated a continuous low-level transmission with two major outbreaks of comparable seasonality and magnitude in 1980–1981 and 2023–2024. We estimate approximately 336,000 OROV infections in the Amazon region under a scenario of continuous endemic transmission without major outbreaks and over 9.4 million OROV infections during major outbreaks from 1960 to 2025. Collectively, our findings provide a comprehensive assessment of OROV transmission in Manaus and contribute to a better understanding of the OROV burden.

AB - Oropouche virus (OROV) is an arbovirus endemic to the Amazon region since the 1950s that re-emerged in late 2023, causing a major epidemic across Central and South America. Here we investigated the transmission dynamics of the 2023–2024 epidemic in Manaus City (Amazonas state, Brazil), a major metropolitan hub in the Amazon, and estimated OROV infections across Latin America and the Caribbean. OROV re-emergence in Manaus resulted in an increase of IgG seroprevalence from 11.4% in November 2023 to 25.7% in November 2024. The neutralizing capacity of OROV-specific IgG antibodies from individuals collected before and after the re-emergence demonstrated a median plaque reduction neutralization test 50% titer of 640 against both the historical and contemporary OROV isolates. A historical reconstruction of OROV circulation in Manaus indicated a continuous low-level transmission with two major outbreaks of comparable seasonality and magnitude in 1980–1981 and 2023–2024. We estimate approximately 336,000 OROV infections in the Amazon region under a scenario of continuous endemic transmission without major outbreaks and over 9.4 million OROV infections during major outbreaks from 1960 to 2025. Collectively, our findings provide a comprehensive assessment of OROV transmission in Manaus and contribute to a better understanding of the OROV burden.

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UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105034447466#tab=citedBy

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JO - Nature Medicine

JF - Nature Medicine

IS - 4

ER -

Transmission dynamics of Oropouche virus in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract

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