Using behavioral economic variables to predict future alcohol use in a crowdsourced sample

Background: Theoretical perspectives at the intersection of behavioral economics and operant theory have resulted in numerous advances for addiction science. Three mechanisms (i.e. behavioral economic demand [consumption-price relationships], delay discounting [reinforcer devaluation with delay], and proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement [relative reinforcement attributable to alcohol]) are proposed to contribute to problematic alcohol use. Limited research has evaluated the unique contribution of these mechanisms for predicting future alcohol consumption. Aim: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive relationship between these mechanisms and self-reported alcohol use frequency, quantity, and severity. Methods: Participants (n=223) sampled from the crowdsourcing website Amazon Mechanical Turk completed a survey containing behavioral economic measures. Weekly reports of daily alcohol use were then collected for 18 weeks. Unadjusted and adjusted models determined the association between behavioral economic variables and alcohol use. Results/outcomes: Behavioral economic measures were associated with alcohol and soda use at baseline in a stimulus-selective manner (e.g. alcohol demand associated with alcohol, but not soda, variables). Predictive models adjusted for Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test scores indicated that increased proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement and behavioral economic demand were uniquely and incrementally associated with frequency (e.g. adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=5.54 for proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement, p<0.05) and quantity-severity measures (e.g. AOR=7.58 for alcohol demand intensity, p<0.001), respectively. Test-retest reliability was generally acceptable (r_xx=0.42–0.76) with the exception of proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement (r_xx=0.29). Conclusion/interpretation: These findings indicate the unique, predictive, and incremental validity of behavioral economic measures for evaluating future alcohol consumption, supporting their continued use in addiction science research.