Using state administrative data to measure program performance

We use administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of earnings impact estimates for a job training program, based on alternative nonexperimental methods. We consider regression, adjustment, Mahalanobis distance matching, and various methods using propensity-score matching, examining both cross-sectional estimates and difference-in-difference estimates. Specification tests suggest that the difference-in-difference estimator may provide a better measure of program impact. We find that propensity-score matching is most effective, but the detailed implementation is not of critical importance. Our analyses demonstrate that existing data can be used to obtain useful estimates of program, impact.