Correlates of national-level homicide variation in post-communist east-central Europe

This article examines whether correlates of cross-national homicide variation tested with data from highly developed, predominantly Western nations could also explain homicide rates in East-Central Europe. Using pooled time-series analyses of data from nine countries from 1990 through 2003, this study found that homicide rates were negatively related to GDP/capita and positively related to ethnic diversity and population density. They were also negatively related to the percentage of young people and not significantly related to income inequality or divorce rates. This article also investigates whether conditions specific to the post-communist transformations contributed to homicide variation. Findings indicate that progressive reforms toward democratization and marketization decreased homicide rates. The discussion uses the socio-historical context of the nations to explain these results.