Spatially distributed probabilistic assessment of submarine slope STABILITY

First-order, second-moment (FOSM) approximations provide an efficient way to assess submarine slope stability across large areas for which digital bathymetric data are available. This is demonstrated using 20m bin 3D seismic seafloor data for a deepwater area with typical geotechnical soil properties. Results are obtained in terms of a factor of safety mean and standard deviation for an infinite slope with pseudo-static seismic loading. From this the probability of sliding is calculated for each bin without the computational burden of Monte Carlo or other iterative methods. Because these types of probabilistic model incorporate parameter uncertainty into their input and output, they can be used to support decisions about the value of additional data collection, or justify more sophisticated analyses that may help to reduce output uncertainties. In addition to providing detailed maps of the probability of sliding, the analysis produces global statistics that allow insight into the broader response of the system to seismic shaking.